Bofredrik From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 1368 times:
The majority of the more than 1 million Cuban exiles living in the United States live in and around the city of Miami. When Castro dies, and maybe the whole leadership with him, what kind of Cuba will we see in the the future? What roll will the large group of "Cuban exile" play in politics & economy? OR is it better for Cuba if they stay where they are...? And most important, what will the people who live in Cuba want?
Dougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 1, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 1362 times:
That's a very interesting question. I've got my bleacher seats reserved. It will be a very interesting show.
A lot of folks in south Florida seem to think that they're going to just march right back, take up where they left off, it'll be 1956 all over again. My impression of them is that they're sunshine soldiers and summer patriots for the most part.
I do not think they will, in the main, be gratified. I mean, after the victory parades there's going to be a country to run, it's got a lot of problems, it's been a long time since they've been in country or worked in government, there are a fair number of folks in Cuba who've got a vested interest in socialism, Castro style, and no real desire to go back to the days of Batista and the mob. It's all very well to sit around South Florida drinking coffee and posturing, but it's a much different matter to start running a government.
Recent events suggest that Fidel Castro is quite ill and may not be with us forever. What that will mean for political affairs is hard to figure...I do not know what a post Fidel Cuba will look like but one can expect the end of the silly and stupid embargo...events have shown that when Cuba has a choice, they like to push their grocery cart in the US. The embargo's only hurt US farmers and producers of food products.
PlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11254 posts, RR: 63 Reply 2, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 1338 times:
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 1): Recent events suggest that Fidel Castro is quite ill and may not be with us forever. What that will mean for political affairs is hard to figure...I do not know what a post Fidel Cuba will look like but one can expect the end of the silly and stupid embargo...events have shown that when Cuba has a choice, they like to push their grocery cart in the US.
Indeed, terminal cancer has been mentioned by some sources which could explain his fairly long absence from public view, due to chimo treatment.
I'm not sure post Fidel would mean post Castro, as his brother Raul seems to have his eye on the leadership, but here I am confused; Is Raul more "hard line" than Fidel, I am sure I read this somewhere along with how it would be a very negative thing for US - Cuban relations should he indeed take power. However on the contrary to this and the reason I am confused, is that during a recent speech (Military parade on BBC World Service) Raul proclaimed exactly the opposite, more than hinting that the two countries should shed their embargo's and become friends again. I have to wonder if he is just saying this to gain popularity, both home and abroad, after all the Cuban people seems uneasy about him replacing their leader, plus he is an unknown quantity in terms of leadership and whatever personal aspirations he may hold.
Certainly Castro's death would leave a void in Cuba.
Pope From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 3, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1325 times:
The US is in a very difficult situation relative to Cuba if Castro falls. Due to INS's "wet foot / dry foot" policy (if you make it to land you stay if you get stopped at sea we send you back) there is a risk that thousands of departing Cubans would immediately be granted US residency most likely overwhelmning Miami's infrastructure.
At the same time, I can't see the USCG being able to intercept the huge numbers of Cubans that would certainly try to make it to the US.
Mark my words, this will be a clusterf*ck of epic proportions. "Exiled" Cubans marching back into homes and demanding that they be given title to the property (anyone ever heard of "adverse possession"). The lawyers are going to make a killing.
I think you are quite correct. The post-Castro Cuba will be in a way, scorched earth. The population that is left, although "educated" it is lazy and due to no fault of their own have become scammers just to survive.
Some people will drop what they have here in the US and run back there to try to resurrect what dream they believe in. Others will go visit, but opt not to uproot themselves and stay here in the US.
I will go there for the first time, as I was born here in the US, to fulfill my fathers wishes of scattering his ashes over a Castro-free and hopefully free Cuba.
Superfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 38597 posts, RR: 79 Reply 5, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 1310 times:
These so-called Cuban "Exiles" seem to be sittin pretty in south Florida and have a tremendous amount of power here already. Why would they want to go back?
Would they even be able to pull off the kind of coruption they did before the Cuban revolucion? Will the people of Cuba today stand for it?
Quoting Miamiair (Reply 4): The population that is left, although "educated" it is lazy and due to no fault of their own have become scammers just to survive.
Nah I wouldn't call them "lazy".
They value the finer things in life such as the arts, music, food, dance, nice beaches and all that other good stuff.
Exactly. They wield some enormous local, state, and even national power, sitting down there in Southern Florida. I think, for all the bluster that comes from many of them, when the time comes, many will not go back. Why should they?
Quoting Superfly (Reply 5): Would they even be able to pull off the kind of coruption they did before the Cuban revolucion? Will the people of Cuba today stand for it?
Maybe not, but some might be interested in raising the standard of living for the Cuban people, and spend less time on ideological crusades brought forth from Havana.
PPVRA From Brazil, joined Nov 2004, 8498 posts, RR: 42 Reply 7, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 1284 times:
These "powerful" expats are usually the ones that go back and lead succesfull lives in politics - whether good politicians or not, corrupt or not.
It's reflected all over Latin America's history. And they are likely to do the same IMHO (but not all of them).
As for immigration, I think its likely. But there will be so much money flowing into Cuba (tourism or whatever), and it will probably last a while. . . some people people might choose not to leave, at least not immediately.
They will probably be better off not moving right away.
[Edited 2006-12-05 02:21:38]
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
Dougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 8, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 1271 times:
Quoting Miamiair (Reply 4): will go there for the first time, as I was born here in the US, to fulfill my fathers wishes of scattering his ashes over a Castro-free and hopefully free Cuba.
My grandfather lived in south florida all his life and my father was raised there....it was sort of funny, when I was a kid, the old man said that the Bahie de Puercos invasion was the worst kept secret in south Florida at the time. He was a charter boat captain and had to go into Cuba in 1957 and get Powell Crosley's yacht out of there...
What you speak of will be cause for celebration I think. As I will someday take the bottle of dirt from my father's grave and sprinkle it over the beach on the island of Eleuthera in the Bahamas. This mojito's for you, bro. Absent comrades.
Turbo7x7 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 266 posts, RR: 5 Reply 9, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 1266 times:
The first wave of exiles is around the same age of Castro. Many have died already and I doubt those who are left will return in large numbers or have the lifespan and energy to rebuild the country.
On the other hand, I think the #s will be higher with the newer waves like the "Marielitos" and the 90's wave from the "Special Period" and the lottery.
Some people raised an interesting question regarding a refugee overload if there's another political/economic crisis on the island. I wonder if Congress can temporarily rescind certain provisions of the Cuban Adjustment Act? Or if the Pres. can adjust the "wet-foot/dry-foot" policy on the fly should a refugee crisis ensue. . .
I don't think the non-Cuban residents of the state of FL will appreciate being a dumping ground for Castro's failed policies (not to mention the policy of the embargo which has brought mixed results at best).
Bofredrik From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 10, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 1233 times:
What will the US population say if the cubans exiles, after Castro is gone, continues to stay in Florida and not go back to their homeland? We have a lot of people from other countries here but most of them stay here even after the situation in their homeland is better and solved. Example Chile.
YOWza From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 4788 posts, RR: 17 Reply 11, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 1232 times:
Well first off Fidel did not show up for his own birthday celebrations recently which suggests that he's on his way into the ground.
Cuban government functions now end with a "Long live Fidel and Raul" rather than just Fidel. So that should give some indication of what's about to happen. I really hope to see a bit more of Cuba in its current state. i.e. before every street corner has a Starbucks and a fleet of Hummers parked outside.
My own estmiations is that once Fidel is gone, Raul will not be able to hold power for too long.
Superfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 38597 posts, RR: 79 Reply 12, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 1220 times:
Quoting Bofredrik (Reply 10): What will the US population say if the cubans exiles, after Castro is gone, continues to stay in Florida and not go back to their homeland? We have a lot of people from other countries here but most of them stay here even after the situation in their homeland is better and solved.
I seriously doubt that there will be any exodus. Most of them are rich folks down in Florida. The only thing I can see them doing is going down there to build a vacation house, take over operations of existing hotels and of course set up franchises of Starbucks, Burger King, Chevy's, Taco Bell, Hard Rock Cafes, Outback’s and other soulless chain store garbage.
Having power in Washington D.C. means a lot more to them than having power in Havana. My guess is that they will stay.
AndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 13, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 1217 times:
Quoting Superfly (Reply 12):
I seriously doubt that there will be any exodus
I think you are right, but for a different reason. The exiles have been out of Cuba for decades. On one hand, several have died as their exile becomes longer. Then you also have a number of children and their children who only know Miami and the US, and Cuba is somewhat of a foreign country to them. The actual size of exiles, not their US born descendants, is probably low, and moving back to Cuba does not provide them with much of a benefit.
Quoting Bofredrik (Thread starter): When Castro dies, and maybe the whole leadership with him, what kind of Cuba will we see in the the future?
A worse Cuba for a while. If this happens, you will have a power vacuum, with plenty of players trying to get the leadership position. After that, you will have a better Cuba.
Superfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 38597 posts, RR: 79 Reply 14, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 1212 times:
Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 13): Then you also have a number of children and their children who only know Miami and the US, and Cuba is somewhat of a foreign country to them.
I am sure they will find a reason to riot and act a fool when Castro goes (even though they don't like him) just as they did Elian was reunited with his father.
AndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 15, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 1205 times:
Quoting Superfly (Reply 14): I am sure they will find a reason to riot and act a fool when Castro goes (even though they don't like him) just as they did Elian was reunited with his father.
Now I am not sure what would happen, that was a total shame how the exile community behaved. I remember how disgusted I felt by having agreed with Clinton and how his administration handled the Elian case.
Superfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 38597 posts, RR: 79 Reply 16, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 1191 times:
Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 15): Now I am not sure what would happen, that was a total shame how the exile community behaved. I remember how disgusted I felt by having agreed with Clinton and how his administration handled the Elian case.
The whole thing was sad. It was sad that his mother died and it was sad how the 'exiled' community behaved and tried to kidnap him. I am glad that he is with his only living parent.
When I was in Cuba, I saw murals of Elian Gonzales all over the place. He is a local hero.
To answer Bofredrik's original question, I doubt that the 'exiled' community will make Cuba better. Just look at how things are ran in Miami. There mafia style of running things do not bold well for Cuba if they decide to return. It was that culture of corruption that fueled the Revolución back in 1959. Honestly, I wish they were not allowed easy citizenship after the Revolución. They should have been forced to lay in the bad they created.
Also, the term 'exile' really does not fit the Cubans that ran from Castro down in Miami. They are sitting pretty living a very luxurious life in Miami. Not exactly, an 'exile' if you ask me.
Any changes that come in Cuba I would hope would come from within and not influenced by the Cuban mafia down in Miami and there friends in the GOP.
Cuba with its a large diverse educated population probably wont turn to the xenophobic lawless country that Russia, Ukraine and Balkans have become.
I hope they can keep the missionaries from fundamentalist religions out such as the Mormons, Muslims and born-agains.
Falcon84 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 17, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 1182 times:
I talked to a co-worker, who left Cuba in 1959, and he's of the belief that most of the older Cubans in the Miami area would go back to Cuba, to live out the rest of their lives on the home soil. He thinks some of the much younger people would, too, but had reservations about those in their 30's and 40's going back. He's in his 60's, and he said when Fidel dies, and IF Raul institutes some easing of the way the nation is ran, he'd go back as well.
AndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 18, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 1177 times:
Quoting Superfly (Reply 16): It was that culture of corruption that fueled the Revolución back in 1959.
You have to remember that at least at the beginning, the people who left Cuba were the 'elite' of the nation. Sort of the only immigrant community that consisted mostly of the educated and business class.
Superfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 38597 posts, RR: 79 Reply 19, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 1175 times:
Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 18): You have to remember that at least at the beginning, the people who left Cuba were the 'elite' of the nation. Sort of the only immigrant community that consisted mostly of the educated and business class.
AerorobNZ From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 6369 posts, RR: 13 Reply 20, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 1157 times:
I got back from havana 3 weeks ago, and the thing that struck me was that the best thing the USA could do in terms of foreign policy would be to open up the borders by releasing the stupid cold war era embargo. Smoke Castro out by trade and by giving the average Cuban some money. Money = Power. Cuba is fantastic - I recommend it to everyone as a destination.
Miamiair From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 22, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 1151 times:
Quoting Superfly (Reply 16): Any changes that come in Cuba I would hope would come from within and not influenced by the Cuban mafia down in Miami and there friends in the GOP.
You sound like Fidel's mouthpiece. Next thing you are going to do is call the exiles gusanos...
Dougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 23, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 1142 times:
Quoting Miamiair (Reply 22): Quoting Superfly (Reply 16):
Any changes that come in Cuba I would hope would come from within and not influenced by the Cuban mafia down in Miami and there friends in the GOP.
You sound like Fidel's mouthpiece. Next thing you are going to do is call the exiles gusanos...
For the benefit of those who aren't aware of the context could you elucidate? It sounds like a term of insult.....
There are a lot of people, both south and north of Key West who are invested in perpetuating this political problem rather than building any sort of a cooperative solution.
If trade was a good and humanizing influence on China (and reports seem to suggest that) and if Nixon was man enough to go to China, and if our President was happy to stand on Viet Namese soil in Hanoi, breathe the air and pronounce it good last week, surely the way forward is not this idiocy of a boycott...what's it do besides hurt American farmers who want to sell food and folks who'd like to trade and visit? Fact is, Cubans know right where they'd push their grocery carts when shopping for food, and it would be right here in the states.
What we're doing is cutting off our nose to spite our faces. And this policy is driven forcefully from south Florida by some of the leaders of the emigre community who gain by perpetuating it.
Fidel will be gone soon enough. Are the emigres men and women enough to do some nation building after the victory parades?
Superfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 38597 posts, RR: 79 Reply 24, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 1134 times:
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 23): There are a lot of people, both south and north of Key West who are invested in perpetuating this political problem rather than building any sort of a cooperative solution.
If trade was a good and humanizing influence on China (and reports seem to suggest that) and if Nixon was man enough to go to China, and if our President was happy to stand on Viet Namese soil in Hanoi, breathe the air and pronounce it good last week, surely the way forward is not this idiocy of a boycott...what's it do besides hurt American farmers who want to sell food and folks who'd like to trade and visit? Fact is, Cubans know right where they'd push their grocery carts when shopping for food, and it would be right here in the states.
What we're doing is cutting off our nose to spite our faces. And this policy is driven forcefully from south Florida by some of the leaders of the emigre community who gain by perpetuating it.
Excellent commentary on this whole situation.
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 23): Quoting Miamiair (Reply 22):
Quoting Superfly (Reply 16):
Any changes that come in Cuba I would hope would come from within and not influenced by the Cuban mafia down in Miami and there friends in the GOP.
You sound like Fidel's mouthpiece. Next thing you are going to do is call the exiles gusanos...
For the benefit of those who aren't aware of the context could you elucidate? It sounds like a term of insult.....
Of course its meant to be an insult but I was adult enough to ignore it. That is a perfect example of the mentality of those in Miami that support this kind of embargo. There is no room for any sort of logical discussion. All they want to hear is 'death to Castro'. It rather silly considering that everyone eventually dies and he is up there in age and in ill condition.
26 MD11Engineer: There was a programme on German TV a few weeks ago about the current political sdituation in Cuba. According to one Cuban citizen they interviewed, th
27 Miamiair: I will attempt to shed some light on the above posted comment: Gusano is worm. Fidel Castro calls the exile community "the Cuban Mafia in Miami" and
28 ME AVN FAN: - My question is what the exile-Cubans in Miami and elsewhere have in mind. > Do they dream of a return of all those casinos ? > Do they dream of an
29 Superfly: Dougloid: See what I mean? Miamiair had to put words in my mouth that I don't even agree with to get his point across. One has to wonder if he had a p
30 Miamiair: Point is simple, you have in the past extoled the virtues of how great Cuba is, and how the people live. This is the first post of yours I have read
31 Superfly: Yes indeed I have. Big deal! There are many great things about Cuba today. However I never said it was a "paradise". So far the best you can do is sa
32 Dougloid: I don't doubt for a minute that a lot of 'political refugees' with advanced degrees, particularly in medicine, figured that degree would pay a lot be
33 Superfly: That doesn't surprise me at all. He is such a clown yet he accurately represents the mentality of these exiles. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is another one yo
Sponsor Message: 
From , joined Dec 1969, posts, 
From , joined Dec 1969, posts, 
From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11254 posts, 
From , joined Dec 1969, posts, 
From Thailand, joined May 2000, 38597 posts, 
From , joined Dec 1969, posts, 
From Brazil, joined Nov 2004, 8498 posts, 
From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 4788 posts, 
From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 6369 posts, 
Printer friendly format 
