QF744 From Australia, joined Feb 2004, 413 posts, RR: 1 Posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 10059 times:
Qantas has announced the eargly awaited request for proposals from Boeing and Airbus to replace the 763 and open new international routes.
Inside word has it that Boeing has the edge because of the 777-200LR's increased capabilities over the A340-500.
Also interesting to note that they may use their A320 options to replace the 734s.
Guess we'll have to wait and see.
Full release attached.
SYDNEY, 18 August 2005: Qantas announced today it would issue a Request for Proposal (RFP) to aircraft manufacturers for the future provision of new wide-body aircraft.
The aircraft would replace the Qantas Group’s fleet of medium wide-body Boeing 767-300 aircraft and also cater for international capacity growth and new route opportunities in coming years.
The Chief Executive Officer of Qantas, Mr Geoff Dixon, said the RFP represented the first stage in what would be the Group’s largest fleet renewal program since 2000.
“Qantas is looking at options for the next generation wide-body aircraft to strengthen its competitive position and provide for future growth opportunities including medium-haul routes in Asia as well as services into the United States and Europe bypassing traditional hubs.
“To do this, we are formally seeking detailed pricing and performance information from Airbus and Boeing on aircraft types currently in production as well as new types and variants under development.”
The RFP will cover a mix of firm orders and options for:
Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 aircraft for use on medium-haul international, trans-Tasman and Australian domestic routes; and
ultra-long range variants of the Boeing 777 and Airbus A340 to operate on ‘hub-busting’ routes.
Mr Dixon said Qantas wanted a modern fleet that provided maximum flexibility, lower seat mile costs, greater fuel efficiency and the opportunity to introduce the next generation of inflight services.
Qantas holds options on the Airbus A320 and the Boeing 737-800, which will cover narrow-body growth and the possible need to replace the Boeing 737-400 fleet in the future.
Qantas’ last major fleet commitment was announced in November 2000. It included the purchase of 12 Airbus A380, six Boeing 747-400ER and 13 A330-200 and A330–300 aircraft.
Since then, the Group has also purchased additional Boeing 737-800 and A330-300 aircraft as well as 23 Airbus A320-200s for operation by Jetstar.
Antares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 41 Reply 3, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 9939 times:
Been ill lately so not in office, but the planned order is for between 60-100 units according to our source, and there are 40 options remaining on A320s which seem most likely to replace the 734s and allow for growth.
The ultra long range choice will be interesting. I do not believe the A345 will be seriously considered and I think the action there really come down to the 787/A350 variants for delivery after 2012.
In the closer term we would expect a substantial order for 777-300ERs and the 787-3 and -9. It is possible some 777-200LRs will be included as a useful lead in to the choice of a ULR jet, but not many if in fact any are specified.
The 767s and we think in the longer term A330s will be removed from the mix, and we suspect that significantly more A380s will be ordered by Qantas from strong O & D routes like those to London and Los Angeles.
Although not mentioned in the announcements so far, our expectation is that the 717s are dead jets flying looking three or four years out, and that Qantas is looking for either a really good price from Embraer or will opt to 'misuse' 737s/A320s on routes that are at this stage too big for them.
BoeingBus From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1588 posts, RR: 18 Reply 4, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 9895 times:
Quoting QF744 (Thread starter): Mr Dixon said Qantas wanted a modern fleet that provided maximum flexibility, lower seat mile costs, greater fuel efficiency and the opportunity to introduce the next generation of inflight services.
Ok, everything Mr. Dixon points out here Boeing has but Airbus does not or has half measures. I dunno... but I think this is all Boeing to me...
SunriseValley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 3955 posts, RR: 4 Reply 5, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 9860 times:
This RFP seems to rule out the 747ADV at this time. Of course the operative words in the press release are " first stage of a fleet renewal program" and " in production or under development". Thus a later request tailored to the 747ADV is a possibility.
Antares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 41 Reply 6, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 9825 times:
Qantas is quite hostile to the 747ADV in that it has had its time wasted too often by attempted reincarnations of our much loved jumbo. And Yes it appears very happy with the -400ER. It just doesn't see room for anything between an A380 and a larger capacity model in the 787/777 or A350 ranges.
Now it could be making a mistake, but I'm just conveying the vibes as we get them.
A crucial element of the 744 ADV is having to wait until the technology in the 787 migrates to the 'ultimate' jumbo. If I have a personal view on this it is that Boeing will in fact do an all new very high capacity jet, but i hasten to do, I do not have any contacts with Boeing that have inspired that view. It is what I would like to see Boeing do, not what I know they will do.
Sydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 2377 posts, RR: 18 Reply 7, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 9634 times:
Quoting Antares (Reply 3): 40 options remaining on A320s which seem most likely to replace the 734s and allow for growth
Surely the 40 A320 options are for Jetstar and its various incarnations around the place. Given the number of 734's covering Canberra and Adelaide for Cityflyer I'd have thought a mix 738's and A320's would replace these to allow the leisure routes to go to Jetstar and the trunk ones to remain mainline.
Quoting Antares (Reply 3): The 767s and we think in the longer term A330s will be removed from the mix,
I think we can conclude an order for a mix of variants of the 787 is on the way. I can't see Boeing letting this RFP get away from them.
Quoting Antares (Reply 6): And Yes it appears very happy with the -400ER
I'd have thought with SFO opening that there would be a follow on order for maybe another pair of 744ER's. Otherwise isn't SYD-SFO going to suffer the same kind of paylod restrictions that MEL-LAX suffers???
Antares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 41 Reply 9, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 9569 times:
Some significant hints were apparently dropped at the media briefing that Jetstar is about to be 'unleashed' as the vehicle for cultural change at Qantas.
Qantas has had ample experience of the 737-800 and the A320, and however the results are cut and diced the Airbus is superior in every operating scenario they see as likely. Not by much, but enough.
In relation to SFO, yes, it is a slightly shorter route than LAX.
I'm told by a person who was there that Dixon also said Qantas had observed that the A380 was meeting all of its performance objectives so far, and that if it continued to do so, it would deliver Qantas a very significant operational advantage on those routes where it intended to use it.
He alluded to the willingness of Airbus to make significant penalty payments for late delivery.
However on the other side of the argument, we have heard nothing other than very strong interest from inside Qantas for a Boeing solution to the RFP for 60-100 medium sized jets.
Jupiter2 From Australia, joined Jan 2001, 757 posts, RR: 1 Reply 11, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 9404 times:
With no offence to the A350 intended, I cannot see it winning this deal, nor the versions of the 340. If the 330's have proved to big for domestic services, how could they justify ordering the 350 when it is bigger than the 330 ??
I see the 787 being the widebody of choice in this region in the near future, plying their way across the domestic skies, trans Tasman and the Asian routes, with all versions being acquired, by both QF and NZ.
As for the larger aircraft, the 777 will most likely win, but I suspect it will be a closer competition than the 787/350 battle, and I put that purely down to pricing by Airbus. While most would agree the 777 range is superior in operational capabilities, it would most likely hang on what Boeing will do price wise.
However, I firmly believe this will be an all Boeing affair, 783's, 788's and 789's, 773ER's and a bigger than expected number of 772LR's (8-10). Of course it is all purely wishful thinking !!
As for the 320 and 738 options held, surely the 320's will be for Jetstar growth and the 738's (or 739's) be for mainline ? If nothing else to differentiate the two airlines.
777ER From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 11319 posts, RR: 17 Reply 12, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 9345 times:
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Didn't QF go with the A320 for JQ due to the fact that QF domestic is B737 because JQ staff would demand same pay rate as B737 crew? Also because QF wanted A320s also because DJ operate B737s. So A320 options will be for JQ and B737 options for QF
Antares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 41 Reply 13, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 9298 times:
It is true that the original decision on the JQ fleet was based on industrial relations decisions as 777ER says.
But the reading I'm getting on everything management has said today is that Jetstar was always the start of an overhaul of work practices and processes that is going to be rolled right over the top of current Qantas mainline practices and conditions.
That doesn't mean the miseries of flying Jetstar are going to be extended to the Cityflyer services, or that Jetstar will stay precisely the way it is today. We'll have to wait and see how the product side pans out. The major EBAs come up for renegotiation in 2007, so all bets as to different jets for different work forces will be off well before then.
For Qantas to make the future work as it intends, the work place reforms it is aiming for will have to implimented in every aspects of its business. Jetstar was just the proving ground.
QF744 From Australia, joined Feb 2004, 413 posts, RR: 1 Reply 14, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 9287 times:
I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see A320s in QF cls. Look at the Air NZ/Freedom Air mix from that order. Guess it will come down to cabin crew and pilot pay!
I also agree that Airbus is pretty much out of the mix for the "ultra long-haul" aircraft for hub-busting. Dixon has seemed pretty keen on the 777-200LR and it certainly seems like the best solution for QF.
Would be interested to see if they order a couple more 744ERs, but would they not use 773ERs on SYD-SFO services, rather than order more 744s? I would think that the 773 has just enough seats for the route, especially when taking the plane on to YVR.
Also interesting to see if they "re-launch" the Chicago services with a new "hub-buster" aircraft... I know that SYD-JFK non-stop would be a fantastic addition for QF, as would a European run like SYD-CDG or MEL-MUC to avoid SIN.
Antares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 41 Reply 16, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 9145 times:
I think the 773 is much more admired in terms of applicability to Qantas than the 772-LR. The fuel equations are shocking at current prices for any ultra long haul aircraft no matter how efficient when it comes to the differences between full loads in one jet refuelling part way and a smaller jet skewed to a shrinking premium fare base trying to burn fuel to carry fuel to save a few hours at most once a day, and doing bugger all for the passengers who used to connect to existing Qantas flights in either Singapore or Sydney.
Qantas doesn't fly to Singapore for the local market. It flies there to consolidate and exchange traffic from other Australian cities...in the main.
Chicago at the moment doesn't cut the mustard because it wouldn't have the frequency or flexibility of multiple arrivals in LAX with multiple onward connections on AA.
Things change in time of course. But we have to confront the reality of fuel prices at levels where not even Qantas is going to get significant hedging benefits.
Malb777 From Australia, joined Jul 2004, 462 posts, RR: 1 Reply 17, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 9048 times:
Quoting 777ER (Reply 12): Didn't QF go with the A320 for JQ due to the fact that QF domestic is B737 because JQ staff would demand same pay rate as B737 crew? Also because QF wanted A320s also because DJ operate B737s. So A320 options will be for JQ and B737 options for QF
That was the opinion I was under as well , so I cant see things being any different now
thank god i was not born a bird. this type of flying is much better
Avalon From Australia, joined May 2005, 87 posts, RR: 1 Reply 18, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 8978 times:
The A340s do not receive much support here, I note.
Would not the A345 have the advantage of 4 engines over long ocean flights to North (& South) America, as well as to South Africa?
I have read convincing entries from Antares on several occasions that QF prefers 4 engine planes on these flight paths, as well as on trans Tibet routes.
A345s would have the advantage of commonality with the imminent A380 fleet. Everyone seems to be agreed that the 777s are superior to the A340s - is this personal preference or is there evidence somewhere to justify this that I just cannot come across?
Hub-Busting: just which hubs are to be busted? If you cannot fly direct non-stop to London, what other cities are worth aiming for non-stop? SYD-FRA would probably be too marginal if SYD-LHR is too far, so what other destinations further east in Europe would have enough business traffic to support non-stop flights from SYD or MEL? Perhaps Middle Eastern destinations would be aimed for...
Perhaps hub busting would occur mainly to North America - but flying past the coastal cities of LAX, SFO or YVR would probably only work for one or two cities at most.
A320s/B738s - QF have often stated the aim of minimising the different fleet types. If the A320 were introduced to mainline QF operations, would it have to be with the ultimate goal of replacing all the 737s, including the 738s which are still so new to the fleet and in quite high numbers as well?
Would it be no big deal to replace all the 737s with A320s?
If the A320 came in at one end, and the A380 at the top, in an environment that desires minimisation of fleet types, and with Airbus "compensating" QF for A380 delays, Boeing could possibly be squeezed out. The only ace I would see them having up their sleeve is that perhaps the 783 would have the advantage of smaller wing span, allowing it to fit into more gates at Australian domestic airports - but I do not know for a fact whether the A350 would be too wide of wing. Even if so, it could still be cheaper to have the domestic gates modified to take wider winged planes, which could advantage other planes besides the A350, such as the A330s.
Antares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 41 Reply 19, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 8863 times:
I think the A345 is a lovely jet to fly on, but we are talking orders for delivery from no sooner than 2010 and maybe a bit later, so things will have moved on.
The 787 family is the one to beat in terms of superior cabin amenity and assuming Boeing delivers on specs,it seems a likely winner for the order.
I don't know whether the 777 will get a look in, I suspect it will, and my guess is the order will be all or predominantly placed for the -300ER and then supplemented by 787-3s and 787-9s.
Airbus has seen fit not to make the cabin amenity of the A350 competitive even with its own A380, so tough...
I also think Airbus will score more orders for the A320 and A380 from Qantas, which has a compelling need for the large jet regardless of what the gurus in America say about fragmentation.
Yes, Qantas needs quads for those routes you mention, but South America and South Africa do not generate the traffic to justify a separate fleet of A340-600s unless they were almost given away by Toulouse. You never know. If they aren't being given away Qantas would keep its last 744s for those routes, even if they were a bit big until traffic levels rose.
You make some good points about the terminals too, but we expect by then Qantas will have sold its terminals (they have been on the market for several years now but at unrealistic prices) so the wingspan issues will be the new owner's problem.
Toulouse has a steep climb to place the A350 with Qantas, but will score the extra A320 and A380 orders without any problem in my current reading of the outlook.
Avalon From Australia, joined May 2005, 87 posts, RR: 1 Reply 20, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 8775 times:
Thanks for your post - they are always very interesting & I have noticed you haven't been around for a while - hope you are feeling better
Do you think that QF (excluding Jetstar) will move to a mixed fleet of 737s and A320s, or replace all the 737s with A320s?
Also, although not wanting to harp on about the A340s, I have noticed that Airbus are planning on a reworking of the wing (as a result of the A380/A350 developments, I believe, though I cannot find the link unfortunately). I believe the A345 can fly farther than the 744ER; but beyond that, do you know if they offer significantly better economics than the 744/744ER?
QFA001 From Australia, joined exactly 13 years ago today! , 673 posts, RR: 54 Reply 21, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 8764 times:
Quoting Sydscott (Reply 7): Surely the 40 A320 options are for Jetstar and its various incarnations around the place. Given the number of 734's covering Canberra and Adelaide for Cityflyer I'd have thought a mix 738's and A320's would replace these to allow the leisure routes to go to Jetstar and the trunk ones to remain mainline.
I think that you're spot-on, Sydscott. There is a number of routes that QF uses B737-400s on now that would not fit the JQ business model. Having said that, there are also a number of routes that would be more conducive to the JQ business model. So, a mix it will be. Eventually, both QF and JQ should have about the same number of B737-800s and A320s, respectively.
Quoting Antares (Reply 9): Qantas has had ample experience of the 737-800 and the A320, and however the results are cut and diced the Airbus is superior in every operating scenario they see as likely. Not by much, but enough.
If that is true, then QF won't buy more B737-800s. Let's see what happens.
Quoting 777ER (Reply 12): Didn't QF go with the A320 for JQ due to the fact that QF domestic is B737 because JQ staff would demand same pay rate as B737 crew?
That is one of the reasons. All things considered, though, the easiest means of understanding what QF has B737NGs and JQ has A320s is that the A320s allowed JQ to differentiate itself. That includes labour contracts, but also other items such as marketing. For example, I'm not sure where you are based, but in Australia some of the JQ advertising campaigns have concentrated on the extra width of the A320 seats.
Quoting Avalon (Reply 18): Would not the A345 have the advantage of 4 engines over long ocean flights to North (& South) America, as well as to South Africa?
Yes. However, it is for a limited time only. Expanded ETOPS is coming.
Quoting Avalon (Reply 18): A345s would have the advantage of commonality with the imminent A380 fleet.
Nay. There is no useful commonality between the A340 and A380. Not even in the cockpit. If QF were to buy A340s, they would not be able to use the same pilot pool as for the A380s. In terms of spares, the A380 is a totally different airplane with very few parts the same.
Quoting Avalon (Reply 18): Everyone seems to be agreed that the 777s are superior to the A340s - is this personal preference or is there evidence somewhere to justify this that I just cannot come across?
It can be very easily justified. The B777 uses less fuel to fly faster, farther and higher carrying more payload. So long as the price tag from Boeing is right, the A340 just won't be in this ballgame.
Quoting Avalon (Reply 18): Hub-Busting: just which hubs are to be busted?
The looming 800lb gorilla for QF are the sixth-freedom airlines (eg. EK, EY, QR) with Mid-Eastern hubs as well as the current crop of competitors based in SE Asia. The ULR requirement is designed to combat those carriers.
To the east, a lot of people are talking about QF bypassing LAX. Well, that may be true, but I think that they have missed one: AKL. AKL is NZ's hub. Their goal is to use AKL as a 'one-stop' hub to points in North and South America from Australia using smaller airplanes such as the B787. By having access to multiple non-stop points in the US, QF would be defending itself against the future NZ plan. Also, if a thorough AU-US Open Skies came into existence, it would also protect QF against a US Major using one of their major hubs to route traffic to Australia.
IMHO, the hand that QF has shown today is late but it's good. I believe that their strategy is going to be a good one.
ClassicLover From Ireland, joined Mar 2004, 4524 posts, RR: 25 Reply 22, posted (7 years 9 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 8719 times:
Personally, I am betting on Qantas announcing the order in conjunction with the 85th anniversary in November.
I think the reason for international expansion is that that is where the money is to be made. Domestically, the only increases will come from lowering costs, where internationally, it will come from opening up new routes and expanding in order to make more money.
At a guess, I would say that the high fuel prices are what is forcing Qantas' hand at this point in time. They need to expand in order to make more profit to offset the increase in fuel costs. It makes perfect sense to me.
Bypassing traditional hubs - traditional hubs to me says Singapore. Where else does Qantas have a "traditional hub" ? Bypassing Singapore could mean the end of certain code share agreements and opening services to the Middle East, perhaps, and also perhaps opening up more European destinations. I can see SFO being expanded, and perhaps other US and Canadian routes being served direct.
My bet is absolutely on the 777/787. I will be completely and utterly shocked if it goes with Airbus. Airbus are going to get a lot of Qantas business with the A380s if performance specifications are met (and every indications says they will be), so it's hardly as though they're losing out.
Either way, it's all very exciting
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!